[2015.11.28]中国的债券市场定价风险

2015-11-27 22:48| 发布者: tom| 查看: 2666706| 评论: 7|原作者: bleuciel

摘要: 中国债券市场从未有过危机，去年才出现首次违约。今年，至少有六家公司违约，行业多样：一家水泥公司，一家饮料厂和一家太阳能电池板制造厂。经济增速放缓，违约增多不可避免。 ...

原文地址

China’s bond market
中国的债券市场
Pricing risk
定价风险
Debt issuance booms despite a wave of defaults
虽然违约上升，但债务发放火爆
Nov 28th 2015 | SHANGHAI | From the print edition

1. CHINA’S domestic bond market has never been riskier. It was only last year that it suffered its first default. This year at least six companies have defaulted. The miscreants are a diverse lot, including a beverage bottler, a solar-panel maker and a cement company. As economic growth grinds lower, defaults will inevitably rise.

中国债券市场从未有过危机，去年才出现首次违约。今年，至少有六家公司违约，行业多样：一家水泥公司，一家饮料厂和一家太阳能电池板制造厂。经济增速放缓，违约增多不可避免。

2. A gloomy outlook of this kind would normally lead investors to demand a premium before buying bonds. Instead, they have lapped them up, making it cheaper for China’s companies to borrow. Bond issuance has boomed this year, reaching almost 12 trillion yuan ($1.9 trillion) so far, up from the record 7.7 trillion sold in all of 2014, according to Wind Information, a data provider. This has prompted warnings that, much like the stockmarket earlier this year, China’s bond market is swelling into a bubble.

上述展望悲观，投资者一般会要求保证金，然后购买债券。但相反，他们没有，公司借款更廉价。据信息提供商万得资讯，今年，债券发行火爆，至今将达12万亿元（1.9万亿美元），高于2014年7.7万亿的销售记录。这就又一次警告了人们，就像股市今年早些时候，中国的债券市场将会澎胀，产生泡沫。

3. Banks accounted for almost all lending in China until a decade ago. Today, for every five yuan of loans companies take out, they also finance themselves with one yuan of bonds. That has made China the world’s third-biggest bond market, behind America and Japan—a development that should help shield the economy from the expensive busts to which banks are prone.

中国十年以前，贷款几乎都是银行发放。今年，公司每贷款5元，银行就会获得1元的债券融资。这样，中国就成为世界第三大债券市场，仅次于美国和日本。这是一种进步，可以防止大规模的经济破产，而银行也是很容易破产的。

4. At the moment, though, the bond market seems to be stoking risk. For most of the past five years, yields on highly rated corporate bonds were two or three percentage points higher than on government bonds of the same maturity. This year the spread has narrowed, hitting a low in early November of just 1.3 percentage points (see chart). This implies that investors think corporate bonds have become less risky, despite the proliferation of defaults.

然而眼下，中国债券市场酝酿着危机。过去5年中，级评很高的企业债券收入是相当级别政府债券收入的2到3个百分点（见图表）。今年，价差缩小，11月初期仅1.3个百分点（见图表）。这就表明，虽然违约增长，但投资者认为，企业债券的风险已经变得更小。

5. Look at individual bonds, and signs of excess are even more obvious. Vanke is China’s biggest listed property developer and, by most accounts, a well-managed company. But the Chinese property business is going through a painful retrenchment after years of overbuilding, which suggests Vanke’s bonds are not without their risks. Yet in late September they were treated as just as safe as official issuers. Vanke sold five-year bonds at a yield of 3.5%, the same as the bonds of some provincial governments at the time.

再来看看个人债券，很明显发行过多。万科是中国最大的上市房地产开发商。据大家所说，经营状况良好。但中国过度建设多年，房产业将面临痛苦的紧缩期，万科债券不能说没有风险。然而9月下旬，他们还被认为跟官方发行者一样安全。万科5年期债券收益率为3.5%，跟同期一些省级政府债券相同。

6. Despite these ominous portents, many Chinese bond analysts take a sanguine view. The increase in issuance has been exaggerated by a debt swap: local governments are on track this year to replace about 3 trillion yuan of expensive loans with cheaper bonds. The average interest rate paid on outstanding debt in China has fallen from nearly 7% last year to just over 6% this year, according to Hua Chuang Securities, making it easier for borrowers to keep up with payments.

虽然预期不祥，中国很多证券分析师都态度乐观。债券发行增多是被互惠外汇信贷夸大的。地方政府正在走上正轨，今年会用廉价债券替换约3万亿元的昂贵贷款。据华创证券，中国未偿还债务的平均利率已经从去年的近7%降到今年的仅6%多，这样借款人还款更容易。

7. Besides, with growth sluggish, the central bank will probably keep interest rates low. Shi Lei, head of fixed-income research at Ping An Securities, expects yields to come down by as much as half a percentage point over the next year. Spreads between interest rates on corporate bonds and government ones are also starting to widen again. Their compression had been spurred by the stockmarket crash in July, when much of the money that fled stocks ended up in bonds of all ratings. Chen Kang of SWS Research believes that now the stockmarket has rebounded, investors are starting to differentiate again between private and government-backed issuers.

除此之外，经济增速放缓，中央银行可能会利率保低。石磊是平安证券固定收益研究主管。他预计，明年收益会走低，达到半个百分点。同时，企业债券和政府债券之间的价差会加大。5月，大部分资金逃离股市，最后买下各种级别的债券。这个时候股市崩溃，价差已经增大。申银万国证券的陈康认为，现在股票市场反弹，投资者又开始辨别，哪些是私人支持的发行者，哪些是政府支持的发行者。

8. Whether those government-backed issuers deserve their low yields is another question. The handful of defaults to date shows that China is willing to let some companies fail, but so far no big firms in which the central government retains a sizeable shareholding have met that fate. Instead, those that have got into trouble have been rescued, leading investors to treat their bonds as virtually risk-free. SinoSteel, a struggling miner and steel trader, is the latest test of this implicit guarantee. It had been due to repay bondholders some 2 billion yuan in October, but pushed the date back to December 16th. A default would shake investors’ faith in government-backed bonds—bringing some sobriety to a market that sorely needs it.

那些政府支持的发行者是否应得到低回报又是一个问题。现今出现大量违约表明，中国愿意让一些公司倒闭。但现在，还没有一家中央政府持股的大型公司倒闭。相反，那些曾经陷入困境的公司得救了。这样，投资者会认为他们的债券毫无风险。中国中钢集团经营钢铁，还苦苦地经营矿业，是隐性担保的最后考验。10月预期偿持券人20亿元，但又推迟到了11月16日。中钢集团违约，动摇了投资者对政府支持发行债券的信心。虽然市场急需资金，但这让人们保持了冷静。

From the print edition: Finance and economics