标题: 2022.03.02 在乌克兰上空设立禁飞区 [打印本页] 作者: shiyi18 时间: 2022-3-3 01:54 标题: 2022.03.02 在乌克兰上空设立禁飞区 By Invitation | Russia and Ukraine
Anatoliy Grytsenko calls for a no-fly zone over Ukraine
The country’s former defence minister believes the risks of creating one are justified
Mar 2nd 2022
In recent days Ukraine has demonstrated unprecedented morale, national unity and an ability to contain Russia’s aggression. Western military assistance, including the supply of anti-tank weapons, unmanned aerial vehicles, portable surface-to-air missiles, tank and artillery ammunition, enhances our defence capabilities. Ukraine does not expect or want nato forces to fight our war. Ukraine is not asking the West to deploy its forces to defend Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv or Mariupol. This is our country and it is our duty to defend it.
What Ukraine vitally needs is for its allies—including America, Britain and France—to join together and impose a no-fly zone over our country. This will stop Russia from launching devastating missile strikes, dropping bombs or undertaking large-scale air-assault operations using helicopters and aeroplanes.
This would prevent further decimation of our military and civilian infrastructure. It could protect Ukraine and the world from the destruction of dams, nuclear power plants and hazardous chemical facilities. A no-fly zone would help protect residential neighbourhoods, schools, nurseries and hospitals and save thousands of lives. It could avert a humanitarian disaster.
nato allies have the capability to impose and maintain a no-fly zone. Those capabilities are provided by aircraft-carriers and destroyers deployed in the Mediterranean. They are equipped with highly efficient capabilities for the long-range detection and destruction of air targets. The same capabilities also can be provided by fighter aircraft from airfields in nato countries neighbouring Ukraine, and fighter squadrons deployed to them from western and central Europe. And striking air-defence systems would be needed on the ground too in order to keep patrolling planes safe.
We know, and so does nato, that America is able to close the sky over a vast area and against an enemy as powerful as Russia. With American goodwill and consent from other nato allies, a no-fly zone over Ukraine is entirely feasible. So it is up to America to decide whether it is ready to introduce and enforce one.
What are the chances of America hearing Ukraine’s plea? Just a week ago, it was close to zero. But after multiple missile strikes and air raids, a no-fly zone has become more imaginable. As Russia commits war crimes, and as a tide of public protests sweeps around the world, the likelihood of America, Britain and other nato members establishing a no-fly zone has increased.
The main argument against such a step among nato countries is that it is too risky. As nato has stated, its soldiers will not fight in Ukraine or engage in a direct confrontation with Russia as this would trigger a third world war. This is a weighty argument, particularly since nato members are not legally committed to fight for Ukraine. Nobody wants another world war. But the past few days have changed calculations.
First, although imposing a no-fly zone would be a change of nato’s policy, it would be justified by the magnitude of Russia’s aggression. A number of world leaders have already distanced themselves from their initial statements and stances, as Vladimir Putin flagrantly broke his promise not to attack. Some countries, such as Germany, have not merely adjusted but have also started to take tougher action. This is because leaders have observed both the scale of Russia’s deployments and the strength, unity and dedication to freedom demonstrated by the Ukrainians.
Second, a no-fly zone could command popular support in nato member states. Consider that citizens of nato countries now volunteer to fight for Ukraine; their governments do not bar this (and Britain’s foreign minister even declared her support). Just a week ago, one could hardly imagine such a turn. Western leaders, sensitive to public opinion, should listen to those who rally in their thousands demanding more resolute action.
Third, I believe that there is enough at stake in the current conflict for the West to take the risk of introducing a no-fly zone. Joe Biden, America’s president, said after President Putin’s first strikes on Ukraine that it was a dangerous moment for “freedom around the world”. He said that President Putin had “committed an assault on the very principles that uphold global peace”. This is a claim that has immense political meaning and significance. It should have commensurate consequences that stop Russia’s attack on humanity and freedom—rather than just exhausting it economically over the next few years. Russia’s crimes are taking place right now, as you read this article.
Fourth, the risk of introducing a no-fly zone is one that has been reckoned with before. In the Soviet era, there was a risk of confrontation at the Bay of Pigs during the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. More recently, America, Britain and France imposed and sustained a no-fly zone in Libya in 2011. And fighting has happened on other occasions. In 2018 in Syria American forces killed perhaps 100 combatants of the Wagner group, a private military company with close ties to the Kremlin.
Perhaps most important, as far as President Putin is concerned, he is already engaged in conflict with nato after its refusal to respect his demand that the alliance respect pre-1997 boundaries. Instead nato moved its troops closer to Russia’s borders. And despite President Putin’s objections, nato members are continuing to supply Ukraine with arms. A closure of the sky over Ukraine could come next.
A no-fly zone should come with a commitment not to deploy nato troops on Ukrainian soil or in Ukrainian skies. In contrast to Russia’s aggression, the aim of nato’s no-fly zone would be to protect the population and to prevent a humanitarian crisis. With this message, America and nato will not trigger war, but contain it. He who violates the rules of the no-fly zone is the aggressor and must be neutralised or destroyed. The greatest risks are taken by our soldiers, who are fighting for our principles.
Surely, everybody must see now that President Putin will not be stopped with persuasion or sanctions. Force is the only argument that he understands. The time has come to take the first really effective step and to impose a no-fly zone.■
Anatoliy Grytsenko is an associate professor in national security studies at Kyiv-Mohyla Academy in Ukraine. Between 2005 and 2007 he served as the country’s defence minister, and between 2007 and 2012 he was the chairman of its Parliamentary National Security & Defence Committee. He is also a retired colonel.
