2022.03.07 北约已证明其在应对俄罗斯方面的价值

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By Invitation | Russia and Ukraine
Rose Gottemoeller says that NATO has proved its worth in dealing with Russia
A former deputy secretary-general at NATO argues that the alliance is far more flexible, adaptable and purposeful than its critics have claimed

Mar 7th 2022


This war between Russia and Ukraine shows why the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (nato) is the most successful of the international bodies created in the wake of the second world war. As Russian forces built up along Ukraine’s borders in the final months of 2021, the nato alliance was watchful and active, continuing its exercises and policing the sea and airspace near Russia and Belarus. This was despite the insurrectionist riot at the US Capitol in January, the shambolic withdrawal of alliance forces from Afghanistan in August, and the ravages of the Delta and Omicron variants across Europe and North America. Somehow, nato kept going quietly about its business.

It has had to go about things unassumingly, because its certain demise has been regularly announced. In recent years, President Emmanuel Macron of France called nato “braindead” for failing to see the new threats coming at it. President Donald Trump slammed the allies as freeloaders and called into question America’s commitment to defend them. The alliance was in the grip of mortal crisis.


This, though, was nothing new. In the 1960s, France’s withdrawal from the military command structure and the banishment of nato’s headquarters to Brussels rang an early (if premature) death knell. In the 1960s and into the 1970s, the crisis sprang from military coups in member states such as Greece, Turkey and Portugal. In the 1980s Europeans were on the street in their hundreds of thousands in protest at nato Euromissile deployments. But by the 1990s, with the Berlin Wall gone and the Soviet Union with it, nato began to wander in the wilderness, looking for a purpose.

The alliance found one in the fight against terrorism after 9/11, but it also began looking for ways not only to bring in new members from the former Warsaw Pact, but to create a partnership with Russia too. Vladimir Putin does not remember now, but he signed the Rome Declaration in 2002 to develop a pragmatic nato-Russia relationship that ended up doing a great deal of good not only in Europe, but farther afield too.

The sensible projects that the Russian military undertook with nato ranged from combating heroin trafficking out of Afghanistan, to developing safer airspace in Europe, to responding together to accidents involving weapons of mass destruction. The Russians even hosted the allies in 2004 in an exercise that practised responding to terrorist attacks on nuclear truck and rail convoys.

With Mr Putin rattling his nuclear sabre during the present crisis, such pragmatic co-operation is long ago and far away. The experience of nato-Russia co-operation shows, nevertheless, that the alliance was trying to adapt to Russia as a partner, trying to figure out a way to avoid ending up where we are today. For a number of reasons that we are still sorting through, the Russian president decided that cooperation with nato was not in Russia’s interest—or at least, not in his interest.


nato’s adaptability is the key to its success as an institution. No matter what crises are confronting it, the alliance is looking for a way to resolve them and to ensure that they do not happen again. As Russian misbehaviour has been growing in recent years, nato has been exercising its responses methodically.

Air policing, for example, has been in place in the Baltics since the Russians seized Crimea in 2014. Fighter jets from a number of nato countries have cycled through the Baltic states and (more recently) Romania and Bulgaria, regularly scrambling to escort Russian military aircraft as they approach too close to nato borders. The wealth of training that air policing has given pilots from across the alliance will now serve nato well, should it need to deal with air incursions in the midst of this crisis. No one wants to see spillover from the fighting in Ukraine escalating to a general European war.

The success of nato efforts to adapt to Russian hybrid methods is also much in evidence. nato countries in recent years have faced daily cyber-attacks, a misinformation onslaught and at least one attempt at a false flag operation. As Montenegro was approaching its final entry into nato in June 2017, Russia launched a coup attempt that was unsuccessful thanks to immediate action by Montenegro’s leaders, but also thanks to an information campaign launched by nato to push back against false narratives from Moscow.

Now, Russia is losing the information war thanks in part to nato’s savvy and experience. Of course, the governments of Britain and America are leading the way by releasing intelligence, but nato itself is making sure that its soldiers in the field do not fall prey to Russian propaganda tactics, and is keeping nato publics informed of the real situation on the ground in Ukraine and along alliance borders.

In brief, the allies have adapted to hybrid attacks in recent years. They understand what the perpetrators are up to and have done a lot to build up resilience and hone response tactics. The hybrid methods are fluid and ever-changing so the allies cannot sit still—but they understand that. This ability to evolve is nato’s survival method and gainsays the attacks of its loudest critics.

The alliance knows it must adapt yet more to survive, whether it is facing an external bully or internal critics, each threatening its future. That is why it is today the most successful of international security organisations. Long may it be so.

Rose Gottemoeller is the former deputy secretary-general of nato.



应邀参加｜俄罗斯和乌克兰
罗丝-戈特莫勒说，北约已证明其在应对俄罗斯方面的价值
北约前副秘书长认为，该联盟远比其批评者所称的更加灵活、适应性强、目的性强。

2022年3月7日



俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的这场战争表明，为什么北大西洋公约组织（NATO）是第二次世界大战后成立的国际机构中最成功的。在2021年的最后几个月里，当俄罗斯军队沿着乌克兰的边界集结时，北约联盟警惕而积极，继续进行演习，并在俄罗斯和白俄罗斯附近的海域和空域维持治安。尽管1月份美国国会大厦发生了叛乱分子的暴动，8月份联盟部队从阿富汗撤军，以及Delta和Omicron变种在欧洲和北美的肆虐，这一切还是发生了。不知何故，北约一直默默地做着自己的事情。

它不得不不露声色地做事，因为它的必然灭亡已被定期宣布。近年来，法国总统埃马纽埃尔-马克龙称北约为 "脑残"，因为它没有看到新的威胁。唐纳德-特朗普总统抨击盟国是吃闲饭的人，并质疑美国对保卫盟国的承诺。该联盟正处于致命的危机之中。


不过，这并不新鲜。20世纪60年代，法国退出军事指挥机构，北约总部被放逐到布鲁塞尔，敲响了早期（即使是过早的）丧钟。在20世纪60年代和70年代，希腊、土耳其和葡萄牙等成员国的军事政变引发了危机。20世纪80年代，欧洲人成千上万地走上街头，抗议北约的欧洲导弹部署。但到了20世纪90年代，随着柏林墙的消失和苏联的消失，北约开始在荒野中徘徊，寻找目标。

9.11之后，该联盟在反恐斗争中找到了一个目的，但它也开始寻找方法，不仅从前华沙条约组织中引入新成员，而且还与俄罗斯建立伙伴关系。弗拉基米尔-普京现在不记得了，但他在2002年签署了《罗马宣言》，以发展务实的北俄关系，最终不仅在欧洲，而且在更远的地方也做了大量的好事。

俄罗斯军方与北约开展的合理项目包括打击阿富汗的海洛因贩运，在欧洲发展更安全的空域，以及共同应对涉及大规模毁灭性武器的事故。2004年，俄罗斯人甚至在一次演习中接待了盟国，演练如何应对对核卡车和铁路车队的恐怖袭击。

随着普京先生在目前的危机中大肆宣扬他的核剑，这种务实的合作已经离我们很远很远了。然而，北俄合作的经验表明，联盟正在努力适应作为伙伴的俄罗斯，试图找出一种方法来避免落到我们今天的下场。由于一些我们仍在梳理的原因，俄罗斯总统决定，与北约的合作不符合俄罗斯的利益，或者至少不符合他的利益。


北约的适应性是其作为一个机构成功的关键。无论它面临什么危机，联盟都在寻找一种方法来解决它们，并确保它们不会再次发生。近年来，随着俄罗斯的不当行为不断增加，北约一直在有条不紊地行使其反应。

例如，自2014年俄罗斯人夺取克里米亚以来，波罗的海地区的空中警戒就一直在实施。来自北约一些国家的战斗机在波罗的海国家和（最近）罗马尼亚和保加利亚之间循环飞行，在俄罗斯军用飞机过于接近北约边界时定期进行护航。如果北约在这场危机中需要应对空中入侵，那么空警为整个联盟的飞行员提供的丰富培训将为北约提供良好的服务。没有人希望看到乌克兰的战斗升级为一场全面的欧洲战争的溢出效应。

近年来，北约国家每天都面临着网络攻击、误导性信息攻击和至少一次假旗行动的尝试，这也证明了北约适应俄罗斯混合方法的努力是成功的。2017年6月，在黑山即将最后加入北约时，俄罗斯发动了一次政变企图，但由于黑山领导人立即采取行动，也由于北约发起了一场信息运动，对来自莫斯科的虚假陈述进行反击，所以政变没有成功。

现在，俄罗斯在信息战中败下阵来，部分原因是北约的精明和经验。当然，英国和美国政府通过发布情报发挥了领导作用，但北约本身也在确保其在战场上的士兵不会成为俄罗斯宣传策略的牺牲品，并让北约公众了解乌克兰当地和联盟边界的真实情况。

简而言之，近年来，盟国已经适应了混合攻击。他们了解肇事者的目的，并做了大量工作来增强复原力和磨练应对策略。混合方法是流动的、不断变化的，所以盟国不能坐以待毙，但他们明白这一点。这种发展的能力是北约的生存方法，也是对其最大声批评者攻击的回应。

联盟知道，无论是面对外部的恶霸还是内部的批评者，它都必须更加适应，才能生存下去，每个人都威胁着它的未来。这就是为什么它今天是最成功的国际安全组织。愿它永远如此。

罗丝-戈特莫勒是北约的前副秘书长。