2022.05.31 为什么化肥价格在飙升

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The Economist explains
Why fertiliser prices are soaring
The world relies on agrichemicals to feed itself. Rising costs will play havoc with harvests
ENS, THE NETHERLANDS - MAY 17: Agriculutural crops sprayer spraying on a green field during springtime on May 17, 2022 in Ens, The Netherlands. Crop sprayers are used to spray water, pesticides, herbicides or fertilizers on agricultural crops from above. (Photo by Sjoerd van der Wal/Getty Images)
May 31st 2022 (Updated Jun 2nd 2022)

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As well as bringing devastation to Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s war risks tipping millions of people around the world into hunger. Russia and Ukraine supply 28% of globally traded wheat, 29% of the barley, 15% of the maize and 75% of the sunflower oil. Sanctions on Russia, and the blockade of Ukraine’s ports, have stopped much of this from getting out. And farmers elsewhere are struggling to make up the shortfall, in part because profit margins are being squeezed by the surging cost of fertiliser. Why is fertiliser so expensive?


Fertiliser has played an important role in the green revolution—the increase in agricultural yields seen in much of the poor world over the past six decades. In 1960 harvests without fertiliser supported 87% of the world’s population, according to Oxford Analytica, a research firm. By 2015 that had fallen to just 52% of the population. There are three main types: nitrogen-based fertiliser (of which the only expensive ingredient is natural gas), potash (which provides potassium) and phosphates. Fertiliser prices rose sharply in 2021 (see chart) because of a number of factors, prime among them the rising cost of energy and transport as the economic effects of the covid-19 pandemic wore off. Sanctions imposed in December 2021 on Belarus, which produces 18% of the world’s potash, over its government’s attempts to foment a migrant crisis in Europe, made things worse.



Russia’s invasion and the sanctions that followed have caused prices to climb further. In 2021, 25 countries got more than 30% of their fertiliser from Russia. In many eastern European and Central Asian countries that was over 50%. In Europe, energy-security concerns are restricting the use of natural gas to make nitrogen-based fertiliser. And while Nigeria and Qatar, flush with natural gas, are opening new nitrogen plants, and Canada has room to increase potash production, this will take time. Meanwhile prices are expected to stay high.

That will play havoc with harvests. Farmers may be forced to use less fertiliser, reducing yields and the quality of crops. Alternatively they may switch to those that require less fertiliser, such as soybeans, further reducing the supply of crops such as wheat and corn. Producers in America are expected to plant almost 37m hectares of soybeans in 2022, a record high and a 4% increase over 2021, according to government forecasts. Corn plantations, meanwhile, will fall by 4% to 36m hectares. Wheat will remain largely unchanged.

Can their use be reduced? Modern farming techniques such as soil spectroscopy can accurately measure the nutrient levels in soil, allowing for more targeted use of fertilisers. But the technology required is expensive, so is unlikely to help farmers in poor countries. A lower-tech approach would be to use less-intensive farming methods which maintain soil quality, such as crop rotation, tillage that leaves old crop residue behind or “agroforestry” (combining trees with crops in fields). But these methods take time, effort and foresight, and are neither as quick nor effective as modern fertilisers. Sri Lanka shows the difficulty of farming without agrichemicals. In 2021 the government rushed through a complete ban on fertiliser imports as part of a push to become the world’s first fully organic producer of food. Farmers warned of crop losses, food prices spiked and the president declared a state of emergency. The ban was eventually reversed in part (though Sri Lanka’s economic problems have since gone from bad to worse). For now, there is no easy alternative to fertiliser if the world is to maintain food production at anything like its current levels. That means higher food prices and rumbling stomachs.




为什么化肥价格在飙升
世界依靠农用化学品来养活自己。成本上升将对收成造成破坏
荷兰恩斯--5月17日：2022年5月17日，荷兰恩斯，农业作物喷雾器在春天的绿地上进行喷洒。农作物喷雾器用于从上面向农作物喷水、杀虫剂、除草剂或肥料。(Photo by Sjoerd van der Wal/Getty Images)
2022年5月31日（2022年6月2日更新）



除了给乌克兰带来破坏外，弗拉基米尔-普京的战争还有可能使全世界数百万人陷入饥饿。俄罗斯和乌克兰提供全球贸易中28%的小麦、29%的大麦、15%的玉米和75%的葵花籽油。对俄罗斯的制裁，以及对乌克兰港口的封锁，阻止了大部分产品的流出。而其他地方的农民正在努力弥补短缺，部分原因是利润率被激增的化肥成本所挤压。为什么化肥如此昂贵？



化肥在绿色革命中发挥了重要作用--在过去的六十年里，贫穷世界的大部分地区都出现了农业产量的增长。根据研究公司Oxford Analytica的数据，1960年，没有化肥的收成支持了世界上87%的人口。到了2015年，这个数字已经下降到只占人口的52%。主要有三种类型：氮肥（其中唯一昂贵的成分是天然气），钾肥（提供钾）和磷酸盐。2021年化肥价格急剧上升（见图），原因有很多，其中最主要的是随着covid-19大流行病的经济影响逐渐消失，能源和运输成本上升。2021年12月，由于白俄罗斯政府试图在欧洲煽动移民危机，对生产世界18%的钾肥的白俄罗斯实施制裁，使情况变得更糟。



俄罗斯的入侵和随后的制裁导致价格进一步攀升。2021年，25个国家从俄罗斯获得了超过30%的化肥。在许多东欧和中亚国家，这一比例超过50%。在欧洲，对能源安全的担忧正在限制使用天然气来制造氮基肥料。虽然尼日利亚和卡塔尔拥有丰富的天然气，正在开设新的氮气工厂，加拿大也有增加钾肥产量的空间，但这需要时间。同时，价格预计将保持高位。

这将对收成造成破坏。农民可能被迫减少使用化肥，降低产量和作物质量。或者，他们可能转向那些需要较少肥料的作物，如大豆，进一步减少小麦和玉米等作物的供应。根据政府的预测，美国的生产商预计在2022年将种植近3700万公顷的大豆，创下历史新高，比2021年增加4%。与此同时，玉米种植面积将下降4%，达到3600万公顷。小麦将基本保持不变。

能否减少它们的使用？现代农业技术，如土壤光谱学，可以准确地测量土壤中的营养水平，从而更有针对性地使用肥料。但所需的技术很昂贵，所以不太可能帮助贫穷国家的农民。一个技术含量较低的方法是使用不那么密集的耕作方法，以保持土壤质量，如作物轮作、留下旧作物残留物的耕作或 "农林业"（将树木与田间作物相结合）。但这些方法需要时间、努力和远见，既不像现代肥料那样迅速，也不像现代肥料那样有效。斯里兰卡显示了没有农用化学品的耕作的困难。2021年，政府匆忙通过了一项全面禁止化肥进口的规定，作为推动成为世界上第一个完全有机食品生产国的一部分。农民们警告说会有作物损失，食品价格飙升，总统宣布进入紧急状态。该禁令最终被部分撤销（尽管斯里兰卡的经济问题此后变得更加糟糕）。目前，如果世界要将粮食生产维持在类似于目前的水平，就没有简单的化肥替代品。这意味着更高的食品价格和隆隆的肚子。